China is overtaking Japan as the second biggest economy today, the Japanese GDP is stagnating, unemployment rising... In other words Japan is continuing its declline since the 90s. But why is the Yen at a 11 and 9 year high compared to the USD and EUR respectively?
1) Carry Trade: Borrowing in Yen at low interest and investing in a higher yielding currency thereby increasing demand? Has been going on for years plus the USD shows no interest either. So why would that be the reason? Doubtful...
2) Psychology: The Yen as substitute for the USD in tough times? Doesn't go well with the economic data plus there are better subs such as the Swiss Franken in my opinion.
3) Technical trend? Definitely a trend there but such a strong trend usually has underlying fundamentals. Again not exactly sure which ones. Maybe the unattractiveness of US bond yields and other safe haven yields.Most likely it's some combination of all of the above.
In any case an entry order for USD/JPY and HKD/JPY for a short position is entered. The trend might be ending (end of 3rd Elliot Wave?) but then again it might not. As Dennis would say: Buy high, sell low...
17 Aug 2010
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